iPhone fall shipments tracking ahead of initial analyst estimates
- sep
- 30
What you need to know
- Cowen analysts have raised their iPhone forecast for the third quarter.
- It now believes iPhone shipments for the third quarter will come in at 47 million, not 44 million.
- The raise comes as the iPhone XR has proven to be ultra popular after its significant price cut.
iPhone 11 along with the reduced price of the iPhone XR are boosting iPhone shipments.
The iPhone shipments are tracking better than Cowen analysts initially thought they would. Which is why it is raising the near-term build forecasts for the third quarter at 47 million iPhone shipments.
Cowen revealed the change in the forecast in an investor note seen by AppleInsider. The 47 million mark will still see iPhone shipments decline for year-to-year by 2%, but it's a solid improvement over the initial 44 million forecast.
The new forecast accounts for an additional 3 million iPhone shipments due to a spike in demand for the iPhone XR due to its price reduction.
Looking forward, Cowen's forecast for the fourth quarter still remains at 65 million shipments, which will maintain flat year-to-year. Of the 65 million iPhone shipments, the iPhone 11 models will account for 72%, or 47 million units.
"We believe the lower year-on-year build plan may be intended to better control excess inventories going into 2020," writes Cowen. "Especially given the heightened channel inventory levels experienced post-holiday season for the past two years."
That should pave the way for a solid early 2020 when Apple is expected to introduce some big changes to the iPhone.